Articles

“The Emergence and Failure of Democracy: Explaining Paths of Political Regime Change,” in Menard, Claude, and Mary M. Shirley, eds., Handbook of the New Institutional Economics, 2025.

“Globalization, Government Popularity, and the Great Skill Divide,” with Cevat G. Aksoy and Sergei Guriev, Journal of Politics, 86(4): October 2024.

-Online appendix

“Psychological Biases and Democratic Anxiety: A Comment on Little and Meng (2023),” PS: Political Science & Politics. 2024: 1-4.

“What is predictable? A commentary on Tetlock et al. (2023),” Futures & Foresight Science, 2023.

How great is the current danger to democracy? Assessing the risk with historical data (including online appendix), Comparative Political Studies, 2023. 

  -Online appendix -Data and do files

The Popularity of Authoritarian Leaders: A Cross-National Investigation, with Sergei Guriev, World Politics, October 2020.

-Supplementary material -Data and do files

Democracy by Mistake: How the Errors of Autocrats Trigger Transitions to Freer Government, American Political Science Review, August 2020.

-Online appendix -Democratization cases (Excel) -Democratization synopses.

A Theory of Informational Autocracy, with Sergei Guriev, Journal of Public Economics, June 2020.

Economic Development and Democracy: Predispositions and Triggers, Annual Review of Political Science, 2020.
- Data and do files            -Supplemental materials

Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Responses: Putin’s Strategy after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008–9, with Natalia Lamberova, in Victor Shih, ed., Economic Shocks and Authoritarian Stability, University of Michigan Press, 2020.

Informational Autocrats, with Sergei Guriev, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall 2019.

- Data and do files  

Triggering Democracy, Annals of Comparative Democratization, September 2018 (other contributions to symposium on “Should Modernization Theory Survive” available here).

Misperceiving Inequality, with Vladimir Gimpelson, Economics & Politics, March 2018.
- Data and do files        -Online appendix

Russia’s Billionaires, American Economic Review (Papers and Proceedings), May 2016.

Foreword, in Alexei Navalny and Adam Michnik, Opposing Forces: Plotting the New Russia, London: Egret Press, 2016, ix-xxii.

Jurisdiction Size and Local Government Policy Expenditure: Assessing the Effect of Municipal Amalgamation, with Jens Blom-Hansen, Kurt Houlberg, and Soren Serritzlew, American Political Science Review, 110(4), November 2016, pp.812-31.

Income, Democracy, and Leader Turnover, American Journal of Political Science, 2015, 59(4): 927-42.
-Data and statistical analysis

What Does Crossnational Empirical Research Reveal About the Causes of Corruption? In Paul Heywood, ed., Routledge Handbook of Political Corruption, 2015.
- Data and do files

Twenty-five Years of Market Reform: The Political Economy of Change After Communism, in Anders Aslund and Simeon Djankov, eds., The Great Rebirth: Lessons from the Victory of Capitalism Over Communism, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2014.
- Data            - Do file            - Statistical analysis

Putin's Popularity: Why Did Support for the Kremlin Plunge, then Stabilize? Post Soviet Affairs, 2014.

Can Putin Keep His Grip on Power? Current History, October 2013.

Corruption in the Post-Communist Transition, in Paul G. Hare and Gerard Turley, eds., Routledge Handbook on Transition, 2013.

Inequality: the Russian Experience, Current History, October 2012.

Twenty Years of Political Transition, Chapter in Gerard Roland, ed., Economies in Transition: The Long-Run View, Palgrave Macmillan, 2011.

Presidential Popularity in a Hybrid Regime: Russia under Yeltsin and Putin, American Journal of Political Science, 2011.
- Appendix            - Data            - Statistical analysis

Loans for Shares Revisited, Post-Soviet Affairs, July-September 2010.

Oil and Democracy in Russia, published as "Is Russia Cursed by Oil?" Journal for International Affairs, 63, 2, Spring-Summer 2010.

Russian Politics in a Time of Economic Turmoil, in Andrew Kuchins and Anders Aslund, eds., Russia After the Financial Crisis, Washington, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2010.

Death and Prices: The Political Economy of Russia’s Alcohol Crisis, Economics of Transition, 18, 2, April 2010.
- Data      - Statistical analysis

Political Decentralization and Policy Experimentation, with Hongbin Cai, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, 1, 2009.

Political Decentralization and Corruption: Evidence from Around the World, with C. Simon Fan and Chen Lin, Journal of Public Economics, 93, 1-2, 2009.
- Excel     - Stata     - Statistical analysis 

Did Government Decentralization Cause China’s Economic Miracle? with Hongbin Cai, World Politics, July 2006.

What Have We Learned About the Causes of Corruption From Ten Years of Cross-National Empirical Research? Annual Review of Political Science, 2007.
- Data     - Statistical analysis

Explaining Fiscal Decentralization: Geography, Colonial History, Economic Development, and Political Institutions, Journal of Commonwealth and Comparative Politics, 44, 3, 2006.

Decentralization, Fiscal Incentives, and Economic Performance: A Reconsideration, Economics and Politics, July 2006, 18, 2, pp.219-35.

Ruble Politics: Evaluating Exchange Rate Management in 1990s Russia, in Timothy J. Colton and Stephen Holmes, eds., The State after Communism: Governance in the New Russia, Rowman and Littlefield, 2006, pp.187-224.

A Normal Country: Russia After Communism, with Andrei Shleifer, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 19, 1, Winter 2005, pp.151-74.

Does Competition for Capital Discipline Governments? Decentralization, Globalization, and Public Policy, with Hongbin Cai, American Economic Review, June 2005, 95(3): 817-30.

Rational Appeasement, journal article, shorter version International Organization, Spring 2004, 58(2): 345-73.
Proofs of Propositions 4 and 5

State Corroding Federalism, with Hongbin Cai, Journal of Public Economics, March 2004, 88, pp.819-43.

Fiscal Politics in Ethnically-Mined, Developing Federal States: Central Strategies and Secessionist Violence, book chapter, with Eduardo Aleman, in Philip Roeder and Donald Rothchild, eds., Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy after Civil Wars, Cornell University Press, 2005, pp.173-216.

Stabilization Tactics in Latin America: Menem, Cardoso, and the Politics of Low Inflation, shorter version in Comparative Politics, July 2004, 36, 4, pp.399-420.

Cardoso, Menem, and Machiavelli: Political Tactics and Privatization in Latin America, Studies in Comparative International Development, Fall 2003, 38, 3, pp.93-109.

Postcommunist Corruption, chapter, in Jan Fidrmuc and Nauro Campos, eds., Political Economy of Transition and Development: Institutions, Politics, and Policies, Kluwer, 2003, pp.201-226.

Fiscal Games and Public Employment: A Theory With Evidence From Russia, with Vladimir Gimpelson, World Politics, 54, 2, January 2002, pp.145-83.

Political Business Cycles and Russian Elections, or the Manipulations of 'Chudar', with Vladimir Gimpelson, British Journal of Political Science, 31, April 2001, pp.225-46.

Decentralization and Inflation: Commitment, Collective Action, or Continuity?, American Political Science Review, 94, 4, December 2000, pp.837-57.

The Causes of Corruption: A Cross-National Study, Journal of Public Economics, 76(3), June 2000, pp.399-457.

Political Decentralization and Economic Reform: A Game Theoretic Analysis, American Journal of Political Science, April 1999.